Monday, January 17, 2011

Philosophy of Risk Management

Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com 

info@rsdsolutions.com 

 

In graduate school (both when I was in physics and then later in business school) we spent a lot of time studying the philosophy of science – how do we know what we know and when do we know that we truly know it. 

What are the discussion topics of the philosophy of risk management?  How do we know what we know, and when do we know that we know it?

My first reaction is that many risk departments think they know more than they know and they only find out what they don’t know after they should have known it.

Risk management is not so much knowing as it is intuition, humility, flexibility and creativity.  Not part of what we in academia would classify as knowledge.

 

"The commodity cycle speeds up": and the cheap stuff is gone.

by Michael Arbow MBA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com

info@rsdsolutions.com

 

With the re-opening of mines to extract what was once considered the then remaining uneconomical deposits of minerals and metals, the mining world is confirming that we have entered a new era where the terms "peak" gold/copper/nickel/etc will soon be a common catch phrase.  The mining industry and perhaps a year of two before it, the oil industry, have confirmed that all the world's "cheap" raw resource deposits have been found and are being exploited.  The key corporate behavior confirming this fact is the increased high number and dollar amounts that are taking place through mining sector merger and acquisitions.  This behavior is similar to that witnessed in the 1950's in the United States when the key to survival for US railroads faced with a shrinking market (supply of customers) was to become a bigger railroad operator.  Sadly when the market is gone the market is gone.

 

For senior executives steering commodity users and producers, a volatile world lies ahead in the supply of materials and in the stock prices of their companies; potential acquisitions of both resources and target companies can prove to be difficult to price and cash flows from acquisitions difficult to determine.  In the mining sector, risk has been a way of life but it was always been;  Is there a market for the materials discovered?  The risk now is, is there enough supply for the market?  For some this is an example of "up-side" risk, that is until an uber multi-national looks at your reserves.

Article from the Globe and Mail on the rebirth of a BC copper mine: http://tinyurl.com/4whc9k2

 

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Risk management begins with common sense

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By Stephen McPhie, CA

Partner

RSD Solutions

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com

 

Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England and designated deputy of the new UK Prudential Regulation Authority, which will supervise banks, has made some scathing comments in the Herald newspaper [1] about how RBS and HBOS were managed in the years leading up to their massive government rescues that required tens of billions of pounds of taxpayer funds.

His comments are extensive but summed up by his comment:  “… people who ran those two institutions just lost sight of what I would call sound principles of banking.”

I was working in the investment banking sphere in the City of London in the early 2000’s and observed RBS in the wake of its acquisition of NatWest in early 2000.  At the time, the acquisition and integration was arguably the best executed and most successful of any large bank merger worldwide.  However, the bank then appeared to aggressively pursue a strategy of buying market share.  I saw it commit large amounts to many syndicated leveraged transactions for inadequate remuneration in terms of the risk.  Some borderline loans led by other banks only succeeded because of this.

Fred Goodwin, the aggressive head of RBS, seemed to want to make his institution the largest bank in the world and he almost succeeded before the pile of cards came crashing down.  From 2001 to 2007, RBS’s assets doubled, mainly through a string of acquisitions.  This culminated in the disastrous acquisition of ABN Amro, a complete basket case at the time.  Shortly thereafter, RBS required a government rescue.

In my time in the City, I wondered what RBS’s balance sheet would look like if there were a recession.  Many people attributed RBS’s downfall to the ABN acquisition.  This may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back, but it seems that RBS’s balance sheet had been weakening significantly beforehand.  It seems that Andrew Bailey agrees.  He said, talking about the pre-ABN era:  “I think there was very rapid expansion of the investment bank.  I think the controls around the expansion of that investment banking activity were clearly not adequate.”

At the same time, Andy Hornby was running HBOS – at least he was supposed to be.  He had been a great success at ASDA (Wal Mart’s UK subsidiary) in running the clothing retail business.  He seemed to take the large volume, low margin mentality into the property lending business at HBOS with disastrous consequences.  (HBOS was easily Britain’s largest mortgage lender and also had very large exposures to property developers.)  Many people blame Peter Cummings, the head of the corporate bank, as being the main culprit for the debacle but it is questionable whether or not his boss had any ability to exercise any sort of oversight on his activities. 

At HBOS in 2005, Paul Moore, HBOS’s Head of Regulatory Risk, warned that the bank was becoming too risky.  Shortly after that he was forced out of the bank and was replaced by someone he claims had a sales background.

In the cases of both RBS and HBOS, effective and prudent risk management seemed to go by the wayside in the interests of growth and, perhaps, feeding giant egos.  In fact, never mind sophisticated risk management set ups, simple common sense seemed to be absent.  (The applicability of the term common sense to the Financial Services Authority at this time is another topic.)

Interestingly, Andy Hornby has returned to his retail roots as Chief Executive of Alliance Boots, Britain’s largest drug store chain.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

"Merrill warns interest rates may jump by year-end": and the CAD/USD at 1.10

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by Michael Arbow MBA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com

info@rsdsolutions.com

 

As the world's Western economies drag themselves out of the Great Recession; fueled in part by "cheap" money and plenty of global quantitative easing, commodity prices have appeared to confirm their uptrend.  In parallel to this is the European debt crisis which just won't go away despite the best efforts of the PIIGS dramatically reduce government debt levels.  The contagion that is the European debt crisis continues to move from fringe country to fringe country.  As was laid out last year by some economist and now seemingly confirmed by those at Merrill Lynch the US will be the last stop on the tour.  The expectation (pushed back from original forecast) is late this year.

With the US in the sights of debt holders who demand higher rates of interest to cover inflation and perceived risk, the US will be placed in an uncomfortable position.  With its +9% unemployed and high government and consumer debt levels the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise rates.  The fallout will be a devalued dollar (predicted by the likes of Peter Schiff for the last two years) and the accompanying ramp up of commodity prices.  According to Merrill (echoing noted Canadian economist Patricia Croft last year) we can expect to see the Canadian dollar reach the $1.10 level to the USD.  This news is great for going to Disney but not good for Canadian manufacturers or service providers already struggling to remain competitive in the US market.  It may be time for Canadian exporters to seriously consider a redirection of your marketing efforts in the longer term and move to currency and commodity insurance to survive in the immediate term. 

Link to Globe and Mail Merrill article:  http://tinyurl.com/6exewl9

Messes


by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA
Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

info@rsdsolutions.com


“Managers do not solve problems, they manage messes”

            Russell Ackoff

Sounds like a decent working definition of risk management in most organizations.  Risk management should be about preventing messes and enabling action.  Unfortunately it is often a post-mortem job of why did this mess happen.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

A generational bull cycle in metals?


by Michael Arbow MBA
Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

In an article in the New Scientist, David Cohen claims that given current rates of world demand for some key minerals and known world deposits, world supplies will be exhausted within 40 years (silver less than 30).  On top of this statistic lie estimates by various sources that should the entire world maintain a US life style it would require an additional 2.5 to 4.5 Earths.  Together these two statements, if they only become reality in part, indicate the tremendous upside for future commodity demand, prices and volatility.  The problem for commodity users, as opposed to the end consumer is that the economic environment is making it more difficult for manufacturers to pass on price increases.  For those companies not hedged 24/7/365, profit squeezes will inevitably be the result and with that the potential of having the “For Sale” sign going up.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Is having a vegetable garden the next new selling feature of real estate?


by Michael Arbow MBA
Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

Traditionally, at least in the Canadian real estate market, the selling features of a residential property have been the re-modeled bathroom, the finished basement or the double car garage.  This may be about to change.  In a recent Globe and Mail article (http://tinyurl.com/2bajowt) the news for both wholesale and retail consumers of food stuffs is bad and worse.  From the charts and the fundamentals the outlook for food prices seems to be unidirectional and that is up.  In December of 2010 the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index hit a record nominal high, exceeding the pre-crash peak of 2008.  The results are being felt in emerging economies with food riots recently in Algeria and according to many media sources expected to spread to other countries over the near term.  In 2008, rapidly rising food prices led to government collapses and restrictions on exports of domestic supplies. 

For the retail consumer, where possible, they can reduce their risk of higher prices by planting a garden - hence the new selling feature in real estate.  Unfortunately for many large food processors this option is not available to them; their risk management strategy must be financial.  The outstanding question for these firms is:  Will the current risk management procedures work in the “new” normal?