Showing posts with label Monte Carlo Simulation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Monte Carlo Simulation. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Capital Budgeting

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com

 

I do a lot of work on capital budgeting.  I teach several classes that focus on it, and of course it plays a major role in several of the training courses that we conduct for various organizations. 

 

I stress that organizations should use a lot of different techniques for capital budgeting including real option analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and decision analysis whenever possible.  Successful capital budgeting often is the determining point between whether a company is thriving or dying five years down the road. 

 

The capital budgeting task is filled with risk and uncertainty.  Given that, it is rare that the risk department is a fully integrated team into the capital budgeting process.  There are a variety of reasons for this; the silofication of treasury and finance functions, ignorance of capital budgeting techniques by risk managers, ignorance of risk management by the capital budgeting team, as well as a host of others.

 

I believe that if there is one area that risk managers could make a positive and significance difference it is early in the capital budgeting process.  Sad that this rarely happens.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

How Many Lives?

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com 

 

How many lives does your company have?  Is it 1, 10, 100, 1000, more?  The reason I ask is because of some discussions I had lately about the applicability of Monte Carlo Simulation.  I am a huge fan of Monte Carlo Simulation.  I have blogged about this before, but in terms of decision making there are some very strong attributes to using Monte Carlo – not the least of which is that it forces the management team to actually think deeply and carefully about the drivers of the business (and the associated risk relationships).

 

The problem is that the output from a Monte Carlo is often used without realizing that the probabilities only apply IF the company has a very large number of lives.  Only one outcome is going to happen in real life, while Monte Carlo assumes that there are many many lives and outcomes that will be experienced.

 

The next time you use Monte Carlo (which again I want to emphasize I am a fan of) you need to think carefully about Schrodinger’s Cat puzzle before you implement the decision that you created the Monte Carlo to help with.