Showing posts with label treasury. Show all posts
Showing posts with label treasury. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Risk management begins with common sense

By Stephen McPhie, CA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com

 

Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England and designated deputy of the new UK Prudential Regulation Authority, which will supervise banks, has made some scathing comments in the Herald newspaper [1] about how RBS and HBOS were managed in the years leading up to their massive government rescues that required tens of billions of pounds of taxpayer funds.

His comments are extensive but summed up by his comment:  “… people who ran those two institutions just lost sight of what I would call sound principles of banking.”

I was working in the investment banking sphere in the City of London in the early 2000’s and observed RBS in the wake of its acquisition of NatWest in early 2000.  At the time, the acquisition and integration was arguably the best executed and most successful of any large bank merger worldwide.  However, the bank then appeared to aggressively pursue a strategy of buying market share.  I saw it commit large amounts to many syndicated leveraged transactions for inadequate remuneration in terms of the risk.  Some borderline loans led by other banks only succeeded because of this.

Fred Goodwin, the aggressive head of RBS, seemed to want to make his institution the largest bank in the world and he almost succeeded before the pile of cards came crashing down.  From 2001 to 2007, RBS’s assets doubled, mainly through a string of acquisitions.  This culminated in the disastrous acquisition of ABN Amro, a complete basket case at the time.  Shortly thereafter, RBS required a government rescue.

In my time in the City, I wondered what RBS’s balance sheet would look like if there were a recession.  Many people attributed RBS’s downfall to the ABN acquisition.  This may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back, but it seems that RBS’s balance sheet had been weakening significantly beforehand.  It seems that Andrew Bailey agrees.  He said, talking about the pre-ABN era:  “I think there was very rapid expansion of the investment bank.  I think the controls around the expansion of that investment banking activity were clearly not adequate.”

At the same time, Andy Hornby was running HBOS – at least he was supposed to be.  He had been a great success at ASDA (Wal Mart’s UK subsidiary) in running the clothing retail business.  He seemed to take the large volume, low margin mentality into the property lending business at HBOS with disastrous consequences.  (HBOS was easily Britain’s largest mortgage lender and also had very large exposures to property developers.)  Many people blame Peter Cummings, the head of the corporate bank, as being the main culprit for the debacle but it is questionable whether or not his boss had any ability to exercise any sort of oversight on his activities. 

At HBOS in 2005, Paul Moore, HBOS’s Head of Regulatory Risk, warned that the bank was becoming too risky.  Shortly after that he was forced out of the bank and was replaced by someone he claims had a sales background.

In the cases of both RBS and HBOS, effective and prudent risk management seemed to go by the wayside in the interests of growth and, perhaps, feeding giant egos.  In fact, never mind sophisticated risk management set ups, simple common sense seemed to be absent.  (The applicability of the term common sense to the Financial Services Authority at this time is another topic.)

Interestingly, Andy Hornby has returned to his retail roots as Chief Executive of Alliance Boots, Britain’s largest drug store chain.

 

Note:  This blog first appeared on 16 January 2011

Friday, March 11, 2011

Volatility can hurt – personally or corporately

by Stephen McPhie, CA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com

info@rsdsolutions.com 

 

Personally I am short Sterling and long U.S. and Canadian dollars.  Therefore I am intimately, sometimes painfully and always nervously acquainted with the recent volatility of currency exchange rates.  I wake up in mornings wondering if next week’s credit card bill or next month’s property tax can get paid. 

Against the U.S. dollar Sterling is way off where it was a couple of years ago but still significantly higher than 8 years ago.  The strength of the Loonie (Canadian dollar) is a blessing that I currently enjoy.  However, whenever news like the latest inflation figures come out (not good) or Gaddafi kills civilians, I either take a deep breath or heave a sigh of relief. 

So far I have kept out of the local mission but my concerns are a microcosm of those that all treasurers should be familiar with, whether it is currency volatility or related to commodity prices, interest rates or any other such variable. 

I feel comfortable when I manage or hedge my position in some way.  This might be converting in advance of my needs when rates are favourable or incurring an expense in dollars or gaining some income in sterling.  This is short term.  In the longer term, I might take the option I have to move back to North America! 

I do know that I am aware of my position and risks and am doing just about everything I can and that I am constantly reassessing and looking for better ways to do things.  I am also often seeking other views and ideas. 

The question every financial executive and treasurer should be asking themselves is do they have the same satisfaction that they know their risk exposures and are managing them the best they can?

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Low interest rates. Going, going, gone.

by Michael Arbow MBA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com

info@rsdsolutions.com

 

As a follower of our blogs you know our views on rising energy and commodity prices and how this will impact those firms that depend on them in the creation of their firm’s products.  We also know that this rising tide of wholesales prices will eventually push up consumer prices leading to increases in consumer price indexes (inflation) which in turn will cause interest rates to rise.  You could say that this is (money) supply side induced inflation caused by several of the Western world banks introducing quantitative easing. 

In an excellent article in McKinsey Quarterly (link below) their analysts also look at another catalyst for higher interest rates – namely the lack of savings which will be structural in nature.  It is argued that with the Western world’s aging demographic spending (on health) will increase as will the amount of money put aside for food and energy.  All of this will reduce the amount of money available to be saved and thus force borrowers to increase interest rates to incent what few savings are out there. 

With a strong case that interest rates will be going up, how is your firm’s financial risk management preparing for this and how do they plan to push back the day of reckoning? 

For a link to “The era of cheap capital draws to a close” click:

http://tinyurl.com/6ca78gd