by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA
Partner
RSD Solutions Inc.
Just selected the novel Player Piano http://www.amazon.com/Player-Piano-Kurt-Vonnegut/dp/0385333781/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1266865993&sr=8-1 from my bookshelf to read on a plane trip that I am about to make. This 1952 novel from Kurt Vonnegut is one of my favorites. It tells the story of a future in which only those with a PhD have meaningful jobs. The novel also envisions a world in which the activities of skilled workers are digitized in a Tayloresque fashion so that robots can recreate their actions. The assumption is that computer controlled machines – with perfect replicability – will perform better and more efficiently than humans with all of their random flaws and emotions.
Re-reading this book brings to mind three questions. (1) What would the field of finance or risk management look like if everybody had a PhD?, (2) What would the field of finance or risk management look like if no one had a PhD (or no one had a graduate degree of any kind in finance), and (3) If we were going to digitize the actions of the best bankers and risk managers (their decision making processes), what would the algorithms be like?
If you have a graduate degree, the first two questions are likely to be non-sensical. At a minimum, you are likely to provide a very different answer from those that do not have an advanced degree in finance. I believe however that some interesting insights might come from some introspection on this question.
The last question is the one that I find to be most interesting. It is also the most troubling and challenging. It also raises a host of other questions such as; (a) are we trying to understand the actions of the best managers?, (b) what types of decisions do these managers actually make?, (c) are these decisions consistent enough that they could be modeled?, (d) would this process help further the field of finance and risk management, … I am sure you can come up with many more.
Interesting – or at least it is to me. I think I will actually enjoy this plane flight – once I get through the risk management system known as airport security.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Monday, February 22, 2010
Archy and Mehitabel
by Dr. Rick Nason
Partner
RSD Solutions Inc.
It is a snowy day here in Halifax. Great excuse to catch up on some reading. While waiting for some pasta to boil I picked up an old classic – Archy and Mehitabel by Don Marquis. http://www.amazon.com/Archy-Mehitabel-Don-Marquis/dp/0385094787/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1266441496&sr=1-1
The book is a set of poems / stories written by a cricket on a journalist’s typewriter. The cricket (who in a former life used to be a “vers libre poet”) bangs out verse on the manual typewriter without punctuation – since that would require the ability to be on two keys at once. The series started in 1916 in one of the New York newspapers and was later published in book form.
In one of the daily posts – archy the cricket (remember, there is no punctuation or capitalization) asks the journalist to get one of those new-fangled electric typewriters so he (the cricket) will not have to jump so hard to bang out his story.
What in the world does this have to do with finance or risk management? (If you are not thinking that by this point then you are either drunk or not paying attention.) Well – it got me thinking (dangerous activity for me to engage in!). My thought is; “How would the field of finance and risk management be played out if we were back in the days of manual typewriters?” (I realize that some of you are now going to Wikipedia to find out what a manual typewriter is, and when they were used.)
How would finance and risk management be doing without computers? How would finance and risk management be doing without Excel, VBA or C++ programs? How would the field be doing if calculations were still done by hand, by slide rule, or by idiot savants? What if the only datasets available were those that were developed manually from ticker-tape or collecting data from daily newspapers?
What type of instruments would exist in the financial markets? What would we be teaching in the business schools? What certificate or charter programs and designations would those eager to get themselves qualified and noticed be chasing in order to enhance their career prospects in finance?
How would the financial industry look? What would be the state of regulation? What about globalization? What about economic development?
What would be the qualifications to be a successful banker or risk manager? Would those who are currently superstars in the field be superstars in the B.C. (before computers or before calculators) era?
Some food crumbs for thought. (archy likes it when the journalist leaves some food crumbs around.)
Partner
RSD Solutions Inc.
It is a snowy day here in Halifax. Great excuse to catch up on some reading. While waiting for some pasta to boil I picked up an old classic – Archy and Mehitabel by Don Marquis. http://www.amazon.com/Archy-Mehitabel-Don-Marquis/dp/0385094787/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1266441496&sr=1-1
The book is a set of poems / stories written by a cricket on a journalist’s typewriter. The cricket (who in a former life used to be a “vers libre poet”) bangs out verse on the manual typewriter without punctuation – since that would require the ability to be on two keys at once. The series started in 1916 in one of the New York newspapers and was later published in book form.
In one of the daily posts – archy the cricket (remember, there is no punctuation or capitalization) asks the journalist to get one of those new-fangled electric typewriters so he (the cricket) will not have to jump so hard to bang out his story.
What in the world does this have to do with finance or risk management? (If you are not thinking that by this point then you are either drunk or not paying attention.) Well – it got me thinking (dangerous activity for me to engage in!). My thought is; “How would the field of finance and risk management be played out if we were back in the days of manual typewriters?” (I realize that some of you are now going to Wikipedia to find out what a manual typewriter is, and when they were used.)
How would finance and risk management be doing without computers? How would finance and risk management be doing without Excel, VBA or C++ programs? How would the field be doing if calculations were still done by hand, by slide rule, or by idiot savants? What if the only datasets available were those that were developed manually from ticker-tape or collecting data from daily newspapers?
What type of instruments would exist in the financial markets? What would we be teaching in the business schools? What certificate or charter programs and designations would those eager to get themselves qualified and noticed be chasing in order to enhance their career prospects in finance?
How would the financial industry look? What would be the state of regulation? What about globalization? What about economic development?
What would be the qualifications to be a successful banker or risk manager? Would those who are currently superstars in the field be superstars in the B.C. (before computers or before calculators) era?
Some food crumbs for thought. (archy likes it when the journalist leaves some food crumbs around.)
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