Saturday, January 22, 2011

Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups

Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com

info@rsdsolutions.com

You may remember the old series of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cup commercials.  They would always involve an accident between someone eating some peanut butter and someone eating chocolate.  The idea being that the accidental mash-up between two disparate ideas or concepts would lead to a wonderful thing – Resse’s Peanut Butter Cups.

How does your company come up with great creative and innovative ideas?  Particularly how does you company come up with great ideas if accidents are not allowed to happen?  Can risk management help to create “accidents” in a controlled way that will allow for constructive paradigm shifts to happen?

Friday, January 21, 2011

Response Test

Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com

info@rsdsolutions.com

 

I spent a summer working at a nuclear power plant.  On a regular basis, the plant’s engineers would feed false data into the reactors computer to test the response time of the reactor’s system to put the system back into equilibrium.[1] 

Does your organization have a similar way to test or assess how it will react to unexpected conditions in mission critical areas?  What is the response capability of your firm?  Are you hoping you never find out?  Good luck with that!



[1] I had the task of writing a program to take the test results and put them into an easy to understand format

Thursday, January 20, 2011

The Loonie: Powered by oil?

by Michael Arbow MBA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com

info@rsdsolutions.com

 

I recall reading early last year about the positive correlation between oil prices and the strength of the Canadian dollar (CAD) or loonie against the US dollar (USD) and at that time the economist commented on how the relationship was breaking down.  So I decided to see where things are today.  Taking the most recent 10 year daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closing prices from the US Department of Energy and the corresponding 10 years of daily USD/CAD data from the Bank of Canada I ran a few simple correlations. 

The results have been variable; with the ten year correlation being .91 and the last 12 months having the lowest correlation of the 1,3,5 and 10 year periods tested of .72.  Interestingly for the past 6 months that relationship was .88.  Switching gears slightly; from floor traders to the retired CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, all are projecting oil price increases in the coming year (2010 witnessed 7% with tepid global economic growth).  Looks like it could be another good year for Canadians to visit Florida and a troublesome year for Canadian exporters pushing goods to the US.

Painful Job

Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com

info@rsdsolutions.com

 

The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking

                                                J.K. Galbraith

 

Thinking is hard work.  It takes time, it takes energy, and it forces people to become engaged and immersed in the process.  In short, it sucks.  However it is also necessary.  And it can be enlightening.  Furthermore it can be invigorating!

Is your organization adopting conventional views to avoid thinking (and to follow the rest of the lemmings off of the cliff), or is your organization taking the invigorating and refreshing path of thinking that leads to new insights and opportunities into risk management and beyond?

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Starbucks gain in China is my pain in (insert name of non-coffee producing country here)

by Michael Arbow MBA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

 

www.rsdsolutions.com

info@rsdsolutions.com

 

 

While a difficult market to get into, China has the attention of every global company from a country that is saddled with an aging demographic and a stagnant population.  With its 376 stores in China, Starbucks has decided to ramp up its store openings and hopes to see, according to CEO Howard Schultz, thousands more open up.  That is a lot of coffee; even if Mr. Schultz’s dream is only partially realized with one thousand new stores.  For Starbucks shareholders, this is great news and I’m sure the share price will reflect this increase in global market size, for me, I see higher prices for a cup of “joe” from my local donut shop and the floor from which coffee prices may (?) drop rising.  You can expect this perk to be gone from your office soon as well.   

 

Starbucks eyes China from the Motley Fool: http://tinyurl.com/4rxoq87

 

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Studying Shakespeare

Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com

info@rsdsolutions.com

 

In high school I was not the greatest student.  In fact I got straight A+’s in having fun and playing pinball.  One class I always enjoyed though was English – and more specifically studying Shakespeare.  However I could never figure out why in heck we were studying the plays of some long ago dead white guy who wrote such that no one understood him. 

As a risk manager I now know why.  The reason is that Shakespeare wrote about human emotions and human’s reactions to their emotions.

All risk management comes down to the actions of people – either individually, or collectively as in a group (i.e. read markets).  Actions are almost always based on emotion, even though we don’t like to admit it.  Yes, natural disasters will occur as well, but they are relatively few and far between compared to the human created risk events.  Even when natural events occur, the fall-out from human reactions can be many times more significant on outcomes than the direct result of nature.

Have your risk managers studied Shakespeare?

Monday, January 17, 2011

Philosophy of Risk Management

Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com 

info@rsdsolutions.com 

 

In graduate school (both when I was in physics and then later in business school) we spent a lot of time studying the philosophy of science – how do we know what we know and when do we know that we truly know it. 

What are the discussion topics of the philosophy of risk management?  How do we know what we know, and when do we know that we know it?

My first reaction is that many risk departments think they know more than they know and they only find out what they don’t know after they should have known it.

Risk management is not so much knowing as it is intuition, humility, flexibility and creativity.  Not part of what we in academia would classify as knowledge.

 

"The commodity cycle speeds up": and the cheap stuff is gone.

by Michael Arbow MBA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.rsdsolutions.com

info@rsdsolutions.com

 

With the re-opening of mines to extract what was once considered the then remaining uneconomical deposits of minerals and metals, the mining world is confirming that we have entered a new era where the terms "peak" gold/copper/nickel/etc will soon be a common catch phrase.  The mining industry and perhaps a year of two before it, the oil industry, have confirmed that all the world's "cheap" raw resource deposits have been found and are being exploited.  The key corporate behavior confirming this fact is the increased high number and dollar amounts that are taking place through mining sector merger and acquisitions.  This behavior is similar to that witnessed in the 1950's in the United States when the key to survival for US railroads faced with a shrinking market (supply of customers) was to become a bigger railroad operator.  Sadly when the market is gone the market is gone.

 

For senior executives steering commodity users and producers, a volatile world lies ahead in the supply of materials and in the stock prices of their companies; potential acquisitions of both resources and target companies can prove to be difficult to price and cash flows from acquisitions difficult to determine.  In the mining sector, risk has been a way of life but it was always been;  Is there a market for the materials discovered?  The risk now is, is there enough supply for the market?  For some this is an example of "up-side" risk, that is until an uber multi-national looks at your reserves.

Article from the Globe and Mail on the rebirth of a BC copper mine: http://tinyurl.com/4whc9k2

 

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Risk management begins with common sense

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By Stephen McPhie, CA

Partner

RSD Solutions

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com

 

Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England and designated deputy of the new UK Prudential Regulation Authority, which will supervise banks, has made some scathing comments in the Herald newspaper [1] about how RBS and HBOS were managed in the years leading up to their massive government rescues that required tens of billions of pounds of taxpayer funds.

His comments are extensive but summed up by his comment:  “… people who ran those two institutions just lost sight of what I would call sound principles of banking.”

I was working in the investment banking sphere in the City of London in the early 2000’s and observed RBS in the wake of its acquisition of NatWest in early 2000.  At the time, the acquisition and integration was arguably the best executed and most successful of any large bank merger worldwide.  However, the bank then appeared to aggressively pursue a strategy of buying market share.  I saw it commit large amounts to many syndicated leveraged transactions for inadequate remuneration in terms of the risk.  Some borderline loans led by other banks only succeeded because of this.

Fred Goodwin, the aggressive head of RBS, seemed to want to make his institution the largest bank in the world and he almost succeeded before the pile of cards came crashing down.  From 2001 to 2007, RBS’s assets doubled, mainly through a string of acquisitions.  This culminated in the disastrous acquisition of ABN Amro, a complete basket case at the time.  Shortly thereafter, RBS required a government rescue.

In my time in the City, I wondered what RBS’s balance sheet would look like if there were a recession.  Many people attributed RBS’s downfall to the ABN acquisition.  This may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back, but it seems that RBS’s balance sheet had been weakening significantly beforehand.  It seems that Andrew Bailey agrees.  He said, talking about the pre-ABN era:  “I think there was very rapid expansion of the investment bank.  I think the controls around the expansion of that investment banking activity were clearly not adequate.”

At the same time, Andy Hornby was running HBOS – at least he was supposed to be.  He had been a great success at ASDA (Wal Mart’s UK subsidiary) in running the clothing retail business.  He seemed to take the large volume, low margin mentality into the property lending business at HBOS with disastrous consequences.  (HBOS was easily Britain’s largest mortgage lender and also had very large exposures to property developers.)  Many people blame Peter Cummings, the head of the corporate bank, as being the main culprit for the debacle but it is questionable whether or not his boss had any ability to exercise any sort of oversight on his activities. 

At HBOS in 2005, Paul Moore, HBOS’s Head of Regulatory Risk, warned that the bank was becoming too risky.  Shortly after that he was forced out of the bank and was replaced by someone he claims had a sales background.

In the cases of both RBS and HBOS, effective and prudent risk management seemed to go by the wayside in the interests of growth and, perhaps, feeding giant egos.  In fact, never mind sophisticated risk management set ups, simple common sense seemed to be absent.  (The applicability of the term common sense to the Financial Services Authority at this time is another topic.)

Interestingly, Andy Hornby has returned to his retail roots as Chief Executive of Alliance Boots, Britain’s largest drug store chain.