Friday, January 20, 2012

Improving Your Tennis Game

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com

 

I used to play competitive tennis – which of course is a bit unbelievable for anyone who knows me.  I played junior tennis and then in college.  I actually won occasionally as well. 

 

Playing junior tennis was a lot of fun and provided those of us lucky enough to be ranked a lot of unique opportunities.  One of the supposedly fun things was tennis camps.  Going to the camps though was always a two edged sword.  Obviously they were useful as they gave you an opportunity to work on your game.  For me they were critical as I did not have a coach, and thus a tennis camp was my only opportunity to get coaching.

 

The problem with going to a tennis camp though was that you learned new things.  Learning new things is obviously good, but when you are trying to keep a ranking it can be disastrous.  In order to learn new things, you have to try new things.  And to try new things and to become proficient at the new techniques, you need to “unlearn” what has already made you successful.

 

Unlearning is tough.  We all know the old saying that “ya need to dance with the one that brought ya”, but sometimes “what brought ya” is not dancing anymore and it is time to move on. 

 

Sometimes the only way to learn and progress is to go backwards.  The same is true for risk management.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

How Many Lives?

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com 

 

How many lives does your company have?  Is it 1, 10, 100, 1000, more?  The reason I ask is because of some discussions I had lately about the applicability of Monte Carlo Simulation.  I am a huge fan of Monte Carlo Simulation.  I have blogged about this before, but in terms of decision making there are some very strong attributes to using Monte Carlo – not the least of which is that it forces the management team to actually think deeply and carefully about the drivers of the business (and the associated risk relationships).

 

The problem is that the output from a Monte Carlo is often used without realizing that the probabilities only apply IF the company has a very large number of lives.  Only one outcome is going to happen in real life, while Monte Carlo assumes that there are many many lives and outcomes that will be experienced.

 

The next time you use Monte Carlo (which again I want to emphasize I am a fan of) you need to think carefully about Schrodinger’s Cat puzzle before you implement the decision that you created the Monte Carlo to help with.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Systemic Risks in the Shadow Banking System

by Don Alexander, MBA

Associate, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com 

 

The role of alternative investments in the financial intermediation process has moved into the background as Basel III, Dodd-Frank and other proposed reforms are thought to solve all problems.  However, these reforms do not address all the issues, in particular the role of asset managers in the intermediation process and the role of derivatives.  Zoltan Pozsar & Manmohan Singh, two IMF economists, in The Nonbank-Bank Nexus and the Shadow Banking System (IMF Working Paper WP/11/289, December 2011) look at the role of asset managers.

 

The current view of financial regulation does not incorporate the rise of asset managers as a source of funding through the shadow banking system.  Asset managers are sources of demand for non-M2 types of money and serve as source collateral “mines” for the shadow banking system.  Banks receive funding through the re-use of pledged collateral “mined” from asset managers.  This has allowed asset managers to replace traditional creditors, primarily household retail deposits, as a key funding source to the banking system. 

 

In this process, asset managers, normally long-term investors, transform the maturity of the long-term assets into short-term liabilities (similar to bank retail deposits).  This follows the tendency to use these short-term liabilities to boost returns.  Asset managers receive cash collateral in return for the securities they loan.  It’s a gain for both parties since the cash they receive helps them to manage their funds liquidity needs (however they act like wholesale funds).

 

Using this methodology, the US shadow banking system reached $25 trillion in 2007 and declined to $18 trillion in 2010, higher than earlier estimates.  The authors suggest regulators incorporate the re-use of pledged collateral when defining prudent bank liquidity and leverage position ratios.

 

The lack of sufficient disclosure will become apparent during a period of a collateral crunch to the financial system (lack of acceptable collateral).  This will lead to greater funding stresses during a credit squeeze.  According to the authors, there was approximately US$ 5.8 trillion in off-balance sheet items of banks used for collateral mining and collateral re-use.  This is down from nearly US$ 10 trillion at the end of 2007.   The size of the number should be of concern, especially with events in Europe.

 

Monitoring the shadow banking system will warrant closer attention beyond current regulatory parameters.  Regulatory reform is focused on fortifying the equity base of the banking system and limit leverage through caps and capital adequacy requirements.  Pozsar and Singh note that the present framework of financial intermediation and data collection does not fully incorporate asset managers as funding sources for banks through the shadow banking system.  Non-bank sources of funding are thought to be sticky like retail deposits.  They note a number of weaknesses in current data availability: a broader definition of bank leverage, a breakdown of non-bank funding sources and a closer look at dealer’s ability to borrow and re-pledge collateral from various sources. 

 

They suggest an improvement in the current regulatory framework by increasing incentives for banks to move away from wholesale short-term funds into retail deposits and term funds.  Otherwise, the shadow banking system will fill the role, especially for riskier activities.  Other changes they suggest incorporating the unregulated shadow banking system more into Basel III and Dodd-Frank.  Lastly, making changes in the flow of funds data to incorporate derivatives, off-balance sheet transactions and breaking down short-term funding sources for better monitoring.  The use of off-balance sheet sources of funding should be included in risk management monitoring.  

     

For more on this follow the link: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11289.pdf

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Computerless

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.,

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com  

 

How would risk management change if your company had to run without computers for more than a month?  I bet your risk management would actually improve.  At least it would force people to focus on priorities and communicate more directly.  That can’t be a bad thing.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Ben Bernbach

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.,

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com

 

 

I had a meeting earlier this week in the New York offices of advertising giant DDB.  I think all risk managers should take time to hang out with some creative types such as those that work at the iconic firm that many believe is part of the inspiration for the popular Mad Men TV show.

 

While waiting for my appointment to join the meeting, I had a chance to examine some of the original writings of Ben Bernbach, one of the founders of DDB.  A giant of the advertising industry he was a person who had a keen mind.  Reading his original writing, actually better described as random musings (from a page from one of his notebooks) was a walk back into the history of modern advertising as we know it.

 

While I was enjoying reading the page of Bernbach’s writings (in a framed display on the wall of the waiting room) there was one note he wrote that jumped out at me.  The note was; “research keeps you from thinking”.

 

What an applicable statement for risk management I thought.  Then I thought that the statement that “calculation keeps you from thinking” was also equally appropriate.  Are we as risk managers so busy researching and calculating that we forget to think?