Friday, May 6, 2011

Making it Real

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com 

 

Just finished a trip to Chicago with students in my MBA derivatives course at Dalhousie University.  Going to the traditional centre of risk management is always a thrill for the students – even though the exchanges are a shadow of their former selves.  Having the opportunity to be on the floor, and being able to talk to traders (both on the floor and off the floor) brings a different level of understanding to the student’s education.

 

Before leaving Chicago one student dropped me a very kind thank-you note under my hotel room door.  It simply said, “Thanks – for making it real”. 

 

To my way of thinking that was a great thank you note.  The purpose of the trip was to bring risk management out of the textbook and make it come alive.

 

Risk management is not about textbook theories and flow charts.  Risk management is about people and organizations and their very real emotions, thoughts, hopes and fears.  Is your risk department real?

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Update on “Risk Management begins with common sense”

by Stephen McPhie, CA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com 

 

I recently posted a blog with the above title that talked briefly about the debacles at 2 of Britain’s largest banks, Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS. 

 

HBOS was the rather awkward holding company name after the merger of Halifax and Bank of Scotland.  However, we don’t need to bother with that any more as HBOS was acquired by Lloyds TSB after Gordon Brown, then Prime Minister, had a quiet word with the Lloyds chairman and said his government would waive competition rules if Lloyds acquired HBOS.  This happened much to the anger of Lloyds shareholders who lost a large amount of value as a result, and thus relieved the government of an even higher tab for bailing out the banks. 

 

Anyway, the update is that Andy Hornby, CEO of HBOS at the time of its demise and who shortly thereafter in July 2009 became CEO of Boots Alliance left that company in March to “take a career break”.  We can only speculate about that.  However, we do not need to feel too sorry for him.  He likely has a few million in the bank – assuming he managed his personal finances better than some people think he managed HBOS!

 

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Autopilot

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com  

 

Autopilot is fantastic.  It greatly reduces pilot error in flying a plane, and reduces the overall risk of flying.  Except when there is a crisis – a hole in the roof, a flock of birds making a Hudson River landing necessary, a medical emergency on board which means landing at a different airport etc. etc.

 

The point about autopilot is that it is great when things are going as expected (and even for the mild unexpected).  Autopilot does reduce errors, mistakes and items that might otherwise get overlooked.  However autopilot is not for emergencies, or for when things are abnormal.

 

This raises the issue of whether or not your firm’s risk controls work on autopilot.  Are they so successful in normal conditions that they get trusted to act in abnormal conditions?  Who in the firm has the authority to override them?  How is an override decided upon?  All good questions to answer before hitting a flock of birds.

Risk management begins with common sense

By Stephen McPhie, CA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com

 

Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England and designated deputy of the new UK Prudential Regulation Authority, which will supervise banks, has made some scathing comments in the Herald newspaper [1] about how RBS and HBOS were managed in the years leading up to their massive government rescues that required tens of billions of pounds of taxpayer funds.

His comments are extensive but summed up by his comment:  “… people who ran those two institutions just lost sight of what I would call sound principles of banking.”

I was working in the investment banking sphere in the City of London in the early 2000’s and observed RBS in the wake of its acquisition of NatWest in early 2000.  At the time, the acquisition and integration was arguably the best executed and most successful of any large bank merger worldwide.  However, the bank then appeared to aggressively pursue a strategy of buying market share.  I saw it commit large amounts to many syndicated leveraged transactions for inadequate remuneration in terms of the risk.  Some borderline loans led by other banks only succeeded because of this.

Fred Goodwin, the aggressive head of RBS, seemed to want to make his institution the largest bank in the world and he almost succeeded before the pile of cards came crashing down.  From 2001 to 2007, RBS’s assets doubled, mainly through a string of acquisitions.  This culminated in the disastrous acquisition of ABN Amro, a complete basket case at the time.  Shortly thereafter, RBS required a government rescue.

In my time in the City, I wondered what RBS’s balance sheet would look like if there were a recession.  Many people attributed RBS’s downfall to the ABN acquisition.  This may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back, but it seems that RBS’s balance sheet had been weakening significantly beforehand.  It seems that Andrew Bailey agrees.  He said, talking about the pre-ABN era:  “I think there was very rapid expansion of the investment bank.  I think the controls around the expansion of that investment banking activity were clearly not adequate.”

At the same time, Andy Hornby was running HBOS – at least he was supposed to be.  He had been a great success at ASDA (Wal Mart’s UK subsidiary) in running the clothing retail business.  He seemed to take the large volume, low margin mentality into the property lending business at HBOS with disastrous consequences.  (HBOS was easily Britain’s largest mortgage lender and also had very large exposures to property developers.)  Many people blame Peter Cummings, the head of the corporate bank, as being the main culprit for the debacle but it is questionable whether or not his boss had any ability to exercise any sort of oversight on his activities. 

At HBOS in 2005, Paul Moore, HBOS’s Head of Regulatory Risk, warned that the bank was becoming too risky.  Shortly after that he was forced out of the bank and was replaced by someone he claims had a sales background.

In the cases of both RBS and HBOS, effective and prudent risk management seemed to go by the wayside in the interests of growth and, perhaps, feeding giant egos.  In fact, never mind sophisticated risk management set ups, simple common sense seemed to be absent.  (The applicability of the term common sense to the Financial Services Authority at this time is another topic.)

Interestingly, Andy Hornby has returned to his retail roots as Chief Executive of Alliance Boots, Britain’s largest drug store chain.

 

Note:  This blog first appeared on 16 January 2011

Monday, May 2, 2011

Martian Foreign Exchange Risk

By Stephen McPhie, CA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com

 

Even though I lived in the USA for several years, I still do not understand U.S. politics and politicians.  I don’t think most Americans do either.  They just seem to be born either Democrat or Republican and harbour a life-long hatred of the other that borders on vindictiveness at times.  Like many non-Americans, I just observe with amazement and never cease to be astonished about what goes on.  However for better or worse, what goes on in America profoundly affects not only Americans, but also the rest of the world.


Now that we know that the U.S. president wasn’t born on Mars (subject to forensic examination of documentation), will U.S. politicians turn their attention to making a serious attack on the deficit?  And what about the debt mountain?

 

Inflation fears are causing pressure for interest rate rises in a number of countries.  It does not appear that the Fed is yet ready to raise rates but things can change rapidly.

 

The U.S. dollar has been weak while commodity prices have been rising.  However some commentators are now opining that such process have overshot and are predicting falling commodity prices. 

 

What will happen to the Euro if the PIG bale outs become PIGS bale outs?  Or even PIGSI bale outs?  (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain and Italy.)

 

And so on and so on …..

 

The bottom line is that we are facing a very uncertain situation of possible currency volatility.  Does your company have a thorough understanding of its foreign currency exposures in terms of identification, quantification and sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations?  Do you have well-developed strategies and policies for dealing with these?  Are your hedges really effective and are you sure that they do not create additional exposures you are unaware of?

 

And if you answered yes to these questions, are you absolutely certain?  Are you sure that a yes 12 months ago is still a yes today?

Sunday, May 1, 2011

Risk Management Discussion and Analysis

Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com 

 

I don’t know about you, but when I look at a company’s annual report, the two things I concentrate on are the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) and the notes.  The financial statements themselves I find to be relatively useless – they are just a bunch of numbers.  The notes give you the real details behind the numbers, while the MD&A (if properly written – which admittedly is rare) helps you make sense of the numbers as well as providing the story and context behind the numbers.

 

I find that increasingly many risk reports tend to be like the financial statements of a company – lots of numbers (and charts) but little in the way of guidance for the details of how those numbers are constructed, and even less of the story and context behind the numbers.

 

I will argue that Board members, managers and stakeholders need the story and the context behind the numbers more than they need the numbers themselves.  Numbers are too easy to misinterpret, or even worse too easy to develop an unwarranted degree of belief in.  It is the colour of the story and the context that users of risk reports need.  It is assistance in understanding the story of the risk that is most relevant.  It is time that companies started creating a MD&A for their risk reports, rather than more numbers, with more decimal places of implied – but false – precision.