Wednesday, January 12, 2011

A generational bull cycle in metals?


by Michael Arbow MBA
Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

In an article in the New Scientist, David Cohen claims that given current rates of world demand for some key minerals and known world deposits, world supplies will be exhausted within 40 years (silver less than 30).  On top of this statistic lie estimates by various sources that should the entire world maintain a US life style it would require an additional 2.5 to 4.5 Earths.  Together these two statements, if they only become reality in part, indicate the tremendous upside for future commodity demand, prices and volatility.  The problem for commodity users, as opposed to the end consumer is that the economic environment is making it more difficult for manufacturers to pass on price increases.  For those companies not hedged 24/7/365, profit squeezes will inevitably be the result and with that the potential of having the “For Sale” sign going up.

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