by Michael Arbow MBA
Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.
Over the past 4 decades the US Pentagon (Department of Defense) has spent untold millions attempting to build a predictive political risk model, the latest iteration of which cost around $125 million USD. Despite the vast amounts of data gathered from world political experts and the complexity of the algorithms, they failed to predict the recent events in Egypt. Luckily the direct impact on the US in this particular instance is minimal; for now.
Rick Nason, a partner at RSD, has pointed out that risk can be simple, complicated and complex. When people and human emotions are involved it seems that complex risk management wins the day. Is your organization operating under a “tick the box” risk management system? Alternatively, has your organization put faith in algorithms?
For a link to “Pentagon’s Prediction Software Didn’t Spot Egypt Unrest” from Wired Magazine click:
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