Football – The Other One

 

*/By Rick Nason, PhD, CFA
Partner, RSD Solutions Inc/*

*/Follow us on Twitter/* [1]

I just read a brief review of a new book that looks at the mathematics of
football – soccer that is for those of us on the west side of the
Atlantic.  The name of the book is The Numbers Game, and it is by academics
David Sally and Chris Anderson.  I have not read the book, but apparently
they conclude that it is the weakest player on a soccer squad that is more
significant to the success of the team than its strongest player. 

This is a somewhat counterintuitive result as the focus of any team is always
on the superstars.  The media sports pundits are always debating which
superstar will outperform and bring their "A game" to the big match. 
The bit players – the role players – barely get mentioned.  However as
the analysis apparently shows it is the role of these bit players to make a
play – or not – that are most significant in determining the outcome.

I suspect the same is true in risk management as well.  We focus on the big
risks – the superstar risks – and frequently underplay the role and
importance of the bit player risks.  However it is often how the "bit
player" risks "perform" that determine success or failure for the
organization.


[1] https://twitter.com/rsdsolutions