Black Ice

*/By Rick Nason, PhD, CFA
Partner, RSD Solutions Inc./*

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I was visiting my sister who lives in New Brunswick Canada last week.   It
is always nice to get back to the place I was born for a few days and spend
time with family.  As part of the visit, I drove with my sister from
Fredericton to Saint John and back – a drive of about 200 kms in total.

Going from Fredericton to Saint John the road was clear, although the day
itself was overcast with a light rain.  Normally that is cause for concern
but with the temperature an unseasonably warm plus seven degrees  there was
little thought given to the roads freezing over – particularly as they were
plowed bare to dry pavement after the previous week's blizzard.

On the way back to Fredericton in the afternoon however it was a different
story.  The trip started off okay, and the roads were clear.  However about
halfway through the trip it became clear that the light rain was surprisingly
freezing to the road.  To someone who is not familiar with black ice however
the road looked wet but ice free.  Not true!

I dramatically reduced my speed, as did most other experienced drivers. 
However many kept zipping along at normal highway speed – and you know how
this turns out.  Ultimately the highway was closed as the number of
accidents climbed.  Fortunately (miraculously) no one was hurt.

Black ice of course looks like pavement – except it is ice.  It is very
clear and very slippery ice.  Risk is often like black ice.  Risk often
looks like a normal situation when in reality the situation has changed to be
very treacherous.  It takes experience and a willingness to listen to your
intuition to know when the pavement has turned to black ice.  Unfortunately
your car's traction control indicators will not know the difference until
it is too late.  (Likewise your corporate risk management system will also
not notice the difference until it is too late.) 

Black ice is tricky.  Risk is tricky.


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