Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Fools

By Rick Nason, PhD, CFA
Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.
 “If you believe you have a foolproof system you have failed to take into consideration the creativity of fools.”   - Frank W. Abagnale.
Perhaps there is nothing to add to the quote above by Frank Abagnale, the famous imposter who mimicked being a doctor, a lawyer, and an airline pilot amongst other things and whose exploits were the inspiration for the movie Catch me if You Can. 
Foolproof systems work by logic, fools work by illogic, and even bridging both sides in one’s thinking does not create a foolproof system.  In other words, only fools believe in foolproof systems.

Friday, August 14, 2015

Constructive Debate

By Rick Nason, PhD, CFA
Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.
Got an email from a former student today lamenting the rise of “people pleasing versus constructive thought”.  Having constructive thought is tough because it frequently does (and should) evolve into constructive debate. 
A constructive debate involves tension between two or more thoughts on how to make things better.  However, in the age of “every kid gets a Valentine”, tension is frowned upon.  Instead a people pleasing solution is often the quickly sought after desired solution.  (Note: people pleasing solutions are rarely if ever people maximizing solutions.)  
Risk management is not immune to the lack of constructive debate.  Too many of the instances I see involve a political solution (read people pleasing) to a risk issue than a solution process that involved constructive thought and debate.

While the lack of constructive debate is an issue for risk managers and risk management stakeholder to consider, there is another risk management issue here.  That risk issue is the overall lack of debate, and the lack of tension and the lack of constructive thought that goes into business decisions.  Perhaps corporate political correctness is itself a risk management issue – right up there with cyber-security, talent risk, supply chain risk and financial risk.  Instead of a risk audit committee, we need a constructive debate committee.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Peace Equilibrium

By Rick Nason, PhD, CFA
Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.
I recently reread the wonderful book “The Lessons of History” by Will and Ariel Durant.  In this small volume, the noted historians sum up some of the key themes that history has continually exhibited.  Among these recurring themes, the Durants point out that history teaches us that “peace is an unstable equilibrium”.  It is an unfortunate but indisputable fact; peace is rare while war and instability are the constants.
A large part of good management is acknowledging and managing with the facts, rather than managing under a fairy tale system constructed out of how you wish things were.  Just as peace is an unstable equilibrium, so is the absence of risk.  Risk free business is an unstable equilibrium is a fact repeatedly taught to us by the history of business.
While peace being an unstable equilibrium is lamentable, risk free business being an unstable equilibrium is not.  Successful managers are those who realize that risk always exists (remembering that risk is the possibility that bad or good things may happen) and furthermore they embrace the fact that risk always exists.  Pretending otherwise is simply naïve, foolish and dangerous.