Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Systemic Risks in the Shadow Banking System

by Don Alexander, MBA

Associate, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com 

 

The role of alternative investments in the financial intermediation process has moved into the background as Basel III, Dodd-Frank and other proposed reforms are thought to solve all problems.  However, these reforms do not address all the issues, in particular the role of asset managers in the intermediation process and the role of derivatives.  Zoltan Pozsar & Manmohan Singh, two IMF economists, in The Nonbank-Bank Nexus and the Shadow Banking System (IMF Working Paper WP/11/289, December 2011) look at the role of asset managers.

 

The current view of financial regulation does not incorporate the rise of asset managers as a source of funding through the shadow banking system.  Asset managers are sources of demand for non-M2 types of money and serve as source collateral “mines” for the shadow banking system.  Banks receive funding through the re-use of pledged collateral “mined” from asset managers.  This has allowed asset managers to replace traditional creditors, primarily household retail deposits, as a key funding source to the banking system. 

 

In this process, asset managers, normally long-term investors, transform the maturity of the long-term assets into short-term liabilities (similar to bank retail deposits).  This follows the tendency to use these short-term liabilities to boost returns.  Asset managers receive cash collateral in return for the securities they loan.  It’s a gain for both parties since the cash they receive helps them to manage their funds liquidity needs (however they act like wholesale funds).

 

Using this methodology, the US shadow banking system reached $25 trillion in 2007 and declined to $18 trillion in 2010, higher than earlier estimates.  The authors suggest regulators incorporate the re-use of pledged collateral when defining prudent bank liquidity and leverage position ratios.

 

The lack of sufficient disclosure will become apparent during a period of a collateral crunch to the financial system (lack of acceptable collateral).  This will lead to greater funding stresses during a credit squeeze.  According to the authors, there was approximately US$ 5.8 trillion in off-balance sheet items of banks used for collateral mining and collateral re-use.  This is down from nearly US$ 10 trillion at the end of 2007.   The size of the number should be of concern, especially with events in Europe.

 

Monitoring the shadow banking system will warrant closer attention beyond current regulatory parameters.  Regulatory reform is focused on fortifying the equity base of the banking system and limit leverage through caps and capital adequacy requirements.  Pozsar and Singh note that the present framework of financial intermediation and data collection does not fully incorporate asset managers as funding sources for banks through the shadow banking system.  Non-bank sources of funding are thought to be sticky like retail deposits.  They note a number of weaknesses in current data availability: a broader definition of bank leverage, a breakdown of non-bank funding sources and a closer look at dealer’s ability to borrow and re-pledge collateral from various sources. 

 

They suggest an improvement in the current regulatory framework by increasing incentives for banks to move away from wholesale short-term funds into retail deposits and term funds.  Otherwise, the shadow banking system will fill the role, especially for riskier activities.  Other changes they suggest incorporating the unregulated shadow banking system more into Basel III and Dodd-Frank.  Lastly, making changes in the flow of funds data to incorporate derivatives, off-balance sheet transactions and breaking down short-term funding sources for better monitoring.  The use of off-balance sheet sources of funding should be included in risk management monitoring.  

     

For more on this follow the link: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11289.pdf

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Computerless

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.,

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com  

 

How would risk management change if your company had to run without computers for more than a month?  I bet your risk management would actually improve.  At least it would force people to focus on priorities and communicate more directly.  That can’t be a bad thing.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Ben Bernbach

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.,

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com

 

 

I had a meeting earlier this week in the New York offices of advertising giant DDB.  I think all risk managers should take time to hang out with some creative types such as those that work at the iconic firm that many believe is part of the inspiration for the popular Mad Men TV show.

 

While waiting for my appointment to join the meeting, I had a chance to examine some of the original writings of Ben Bernbach, one of the founders of DDB.  A giant of the advertising industry he was a person who had a keen mind.  Reading his original writing, actually better described as random musings (from a page from one of his notebooks) was a walk back into the history of modern advertising as we know it.

 

While I was enjoying reading the page of Bernbach’s writings (in a framed display on the wall of the waiting room) there was one note he wrote that jumped out at me.  The note was; “research keeps you from thinking”.

 

What an applicable statement for risk management I thought.  Then I thought that the statement that “calculation keeps you from thinking” was also equally appropriate.  Are we as risk managers so busy researching and calculating that we forget to think?

Friday, January 13, 2012

Foreign Exchange Risk for 2012

by Don Alexander, MBA

Associate, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com

  

As we enter 2012, the euro has emerged as the weakest currency against the US dollar among the major currencies.   Investors still continue to short the euro on expectations the currency move lower is not finished.  This view is based on the ECB facility is a stop-gap measure and does not resolve the solvency issues.  Investors note the following: the Greece refinancing led by the IMF is still not functioning as expected, the cost of Italian and Spanish debt still remains around 7%, European banks are having a difficult time raising new capital and real investors lack additional appetite for further euro risk exposure.

 

Global economic indicators have started to improve, especially in the US.  However, the demand for European risk assets remains weak as the focus remains on a potential recession and contagion impact to the global economy.  Previously in 2011, anytime the euro came under pressure it was often followed by a countertrend rally.  However, 2012 could be different as real non-European investors continue reducing their euro sovereign bond exposures.  The supply surge of sovereign debt, euro $1 - 1.2 trillion, coming to the market in 2012 and the rollover, euro 700-800 billion, of bank paper/new capital could cause digestion problems as global investors to reduce European exposure.

 

In 2011, the US dollar was used as the funding currency for risky assets.  Given the prospect of a European recession, will cause the ECB to further cut rates and keep them low for an extended period.  The poor reception of capital market issues of European banks suggests that further balance sheet contraction is needed to meet the higher capital ratios.  Banks continue to place funds with the ECB and not employing the central bank liquidity in the real economy.  Real yields have moved into negative territory as the ECB tries to promote an investor shift into riskier assets.  The problem is that the time lag between liquidity creation and a move into risky assets has a time lag.  However, the uncertain outlook suggests this delay may take an extended period of time.

 

The use of the euro as a funding currency rather than an asset currency, a prolonged period of low ECB rates, the prospect of a European recession and uncertainty from the overhang of sovereign/bank debt will push the euro lower.  There will be limited countercyclical euro rallies compared to 2011.  The euro downtrend should continue through the summer until either political gridlock in Washington grabs investor attention as the November election approaches and/or policymakers can provide a resolution for the sovereign debt/banking crisis in Europe.   

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Watching Football

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com 

 

As I write this blog I am also watching one of the bowl games on the internet.  As I would be too distracted by watching the actual game (and not getting this blog done), I am watching the box score.  It is actually a very unique way to watch a football game.  You get lots of stats updated in real time that you would not get if you were at the game.  You also get to participate in chat rooms and read and send zingers about how the game is going to literally thousands of other fans who also have their computer at hand while the game is on.  It is a data junkie’s dream. 

 

It also sucks compared to actually being at the game.

 

But wait – before you sign off thinking this is another crappy blog by yours truly, ask yourself if there is a parallel in risk management?  Namely, are we running risk management by being so absorbed in the numbers that we actually have forgotten about the much more enriching and valuable experience of actually being at the game?  Are we a slave to the stats, or by what is actually happening on the field?  

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Francis Bacon

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com 

 

Francis Bacon was one of the pre-eminent philosophers of the Renaissance.  (I hope that one of my University philosophy profs is smiling that I remembered that.)  Gifted in many fields, he epitomized the concept of “renaissance man”.  He likely would have failed as a risk manager – but that is another story.

 

The thing I am writing this blog about is to introduce you (reintroduce you to those who remember more of their university philosophy class than I do) to a quote of Sir Bacon.  That quote is “He that will not apply new remedies must expect new evils”. 

 

Risk management has lots of both new and old remedies.  Extrapolating Francis Bacon, does that mean that we must also expect lots of new evils?

Monday, January 9, 2012

Reality TV

by Rick Nason, PhD, CFA

Partner, RSD Solutions Inc.

www.RSDsolutions.com

info@RSDsolutions.com

 

 

I have a confession.  During the holidays I watched way too many reality TV marathons.  For some strange reason I got hooked on Repo Wars, King of Cars, and Storage Wars.  Pure unmitigated brain dead TV.  Awesome!

 

Based on this experience I am thinking of pitching a reality TV series “Risk Management”.  I think it would be a hit.  Each week we would see our risk management team of characters deal with yet another issue that has an element of suspense that keeps us watching for all 8 minutes of actual footage in the 30 minute time slot. 

 

Think about having a camera follow you around at work while you do your risk management stuff all day.  It is not as silly as it sounds if you think about it for a minute.  Oopps, gotta go – the episode where Darrell gets into it with Brandi is about to start.